Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to fall to between 17.0% and 17.9% year-on-year (y/y) by November 2025, driven by favourable base effects and relative macroeconomic stability, according to analysts at a Stanbic IBTC-hosted conference call.
The projection reflects optimism that inflation will remain below 20.0% by October, despite anticipated short-term monthly pressures.
In the near term, inflation on a month-on-month (m/m) basis may climb further in July and August, which are typically marked by peak flooding in southern Nigeria and the lean agricultural season in the north. These seasonal factors historically drive food scarcity and higher food prices, contributing to short-term price pressures.