Ogun is one of the states currently in spotlight politics due to its succession plan. The state is a major focus of political attention right now owing to the approaching end of the second tenure of the incumbent Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun and the intense maneuvering, particularly within the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), over who will succeed him. With the array of contenders in the race, this succession battle is a dominant political issue in the state.
And history beckons on the Governor to navigate this complex issue with utmost sincerity and genuine sense of purpose, bearing in mind that no past leader in the state has succeeded in choosing a successor since the return to civil rule in 1999.
Aremo Olusegun Osoba (1999–2003) could not successfully choose a successor, as he was unseated by Otunba Gbenga Daniel (aka OGD) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003.
On completion of his tenure in 2011, Gbenga Daniel attempted to install his preferred candidate, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (aka GNI), who ran on a different party, Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) ticket after the PDP crisis but failed. His immediate successor, Ibikunle Amosun of the APC, also anointed his chosen one, Hon Adekunle Abdulkabir Akinlade, who eventually dumped the APC for the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) to contest the 2019 governorship election, but failed with Dapo Abiodun of the APC winning the election.
Abiodun is widely seen as facing the same historical jinx as he prepares for the end of his second term in 2027.
For a seamless succession plan, several factors have to be considered in addressing this complex political challenge. The most contentious and significant of all is the Ogun West’s marginalization. A truly seamless succession will require a political solution that addresses the zone’s aspiration to produce the next governor. Since the state’s creation in 1976, Ogun West is the only senatorial district that has not produced a civilian governor, a situation that has created a strong, long-standing, and justifiable sense of marginalization.
Such a lopsided arrangement can no longer be sustained. The incumbent governor’s role is crucial, despite the historical jinx of past governors failing to choose their successor.
Governor Abiodun’s eventual choice of a preferred candidate; if he makes one, and his willingness to commit the state and party machinery to that person will significantly influence a smooth power transition in 2027.
A smooth transition requires the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), to present a united front. Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (aka Yayi), who is the symbol of the Ogun West agitation, has already secured the consensus of the Yewa/Awori people, making it easy to form a united front against the opposition in the coming elections.
Beyond Ogun West agitation, Senator Adeola is a growing phenomenon in Ogun State politics, phenomenal in terms of his capacity, popularity, grassroots connection, national relevance, good representation, philanthropy, human capital development, and youth and women empowerment. With overwhelming people’s power on his side, his candidacy would be an easy win for the APC. Governor Dapo has nothing to lose by supporting him, but everything to gain.
Ogun State has had enough experience of a badly managed succession plan. Abiodun cannot afford to toe the same path of imposition. Conducting a credible and transparent primary is the only responsibility he owes the APC supporters. Every other thing can take care of itself because Adeola has the number, the goodwill, governance experience spanning over two decades, financial wherewithal and grassroots connection to make his candidacy an easy win. God forbids, should there be any unresolved schism over the governorship ticket, it will lead to defections and split votes, as seen in the 2019 election when Amosun’s anointed candidate ran on a different platform.
There is a widely held belief among the yearning electorate in Ogun State that voting for Adeola will bring the Lagos State model of development to Ogun State. To date, development planning in Ogun State has been inconsistent, perfunctory, and sometimes contradictory, due to a lack of a sustainable succession pattern. Adeola’s experience in Lagos positions him to change this narrative. A common critique of development in Ogun Stat is a lack of a sustainable succession pattern leading to inconsistency in development policy as each new administration abandons its predecessor’s projects.
Leveraging his political history in Lagos, Senator Yayi will provide a solution to this instability through two main pathways. One, adopting the Lagos Model of Strategic Continuity.
Lagos State, over the last two decades, has been characterized by a Master Plan or Development Plan that succeeding administrations have largely adhered to, ensuring that key projects are seen through, regardless of who is in office. This continuity is widely credited for Lagos’s sustained economic and infrastructural growth.
Adeola is the one who can institute this culture of continuity in Ogun because he is a dependable ally and a successor who shares the vision of the incumbent administration. This shared political DNA will guarantee the non-abandonment of current developmental projects, ensuring continuity of vision and preventing the wasted resources associated with the usual policy summersaults.
Secondly, his background as a Chartered Accountant and his work in establishing robust fiscal frameworks, like the LIRS in Lagos and his role as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations mean he has the technical knowledge to institutionalize long-term financial planning, making development plans legally and fiscally binding beyond a single four or eight-year tenure.
Changing the narrative in Ogun State involves moving governance from an ad-hoc, leader-centric style to a sustainable, system-centric one. His proposed plan aims to stabilize development by focusing on
Financial Independence by recalibrating the tax system and boost IGR through the Lagos LIRS model, a robust, system-driven revenue source that provides a stable funding stream that new governors cannot easily divert or dismantle.
Based on his current position as Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations, he will leverage his legislative experience to attract federal projects and complementary state-funded ones.
Additionally, his political platform is anchored on consolidation and sustainability of the current government’s initiatives, such as the Gateway International Airport and strategic road networks, inclusivity and unity. His focus on breaking the Yewa/Awori marginalization jinx is presented as a unifying factor. By addressing historical political injustice, he aims to create a political environment of broader consensus across the senatorial districts, which is essential for stabilizing long-term development plans.
Adeola offers a rare mix of financial mastery to fund sustainable plans and political alignment/experience to ensure continuity, thereby addressing the critical problem of inconsistent development planning that has plagued the state.
A plan is only as good as its implementation and its impact on the populace. The key to sustainable development lies in making it people-centered and ensuring it improves the welfare of the majority.
Adeola’s strategy for translating a development plan into a sustainable and people-centered reality has been primarily demonstrated through his Transformative Agenda and his established track record of direct grassroots intervention.
Adeola’s political philosophy is heavily predicated on visible, direct interventions that tangibly improve the lives of citizens, a model often referred to as responsive or welfarist governance.
Apart from his intervention in critical areas of infrastructure, poverty alleviation, job creation, empowerment Programme, agricultural support, vocational training, and startup equipment, Adeola’s ultimate aim is to create a sustainable economic base that is independent of public sector wages.
By investing in local human capacity the goal is to ensure a sustainable industrial and economic growth plans.
His people-centred policy initiatives directly addresses a basic need such as electricity), which significantly improves quality of life, security, and supports the growth of small businesses at the grassroots. |
In the same manner, the facilitation of the construction of multiple Primary Health Care Centres (PHCs) and establishment of Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in State Hospitals brings essential services closer to the people, especially in rural areas, directly impacting public welfare and reducing pressure on central facilities.
And, of course, his Lagos experience in financial engineering is positioned as the guarantee for funding and sustaining these people-centered initiatives.
Having been instrumental in bolstering Lagos’s Internal Generated Revenue (IGR), his plan for Ogun involves recalibrating the tax system for better efficiency, accountability, and increased revenue. This is crucial because people-centered projects require consistent funding that does not rely solely on volatile federal allocations.
For sustainable industrialization and inclusive growth initiatives, Adeola consistently champions infrastructure development like road construction and the completion of the Gateway International Airport as a catalyst for economic growth. This growth is tied to the people-centered agenda by attracting investments and creating job opportunities for the newly empowered and skilled citizenry.
By championing the cause for power-shift to the Ogun West Senatorial District, his candidacy is framed as an act of correcting historical political imbalance. This emphasis on unity and inclusive governance across the three senatorial zones which is key to long-term sustainability, as it reduces political friction and ensures policies are implemented for all sections of the state.
In essence, Adeola’s proposition is a two-pronged solution: implementing the systemic stability of Lagos’s long-term plan, and simultaneously ensuring that the resulting prosperity is equitably distributed through his grassroots empowerment and infrastructural projects.
*Fatunmbi writes from Okeagbede, Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state