Eagle Badger Data Analytics Limited (EBDA) has reaffirmed the accuracy of its second quarter (Q2) 2025 Stability Index following recent developments in Mali and Nigeria, which align closely with the early warning signals highlighted in the company’s latest report.
The Eagle Badger Stability Index (EBSI), released in July 2025, had placed Mali, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso in the red zone, indicating heightened instability risks driven by insecurity, political volatility, and economic fragility. In the weeks since, events in these countries have underscored the predictive power of the tool.
In Mali, the escalation of jihadist activity and the ongoing fuel blockade reflect the Index’s early warnings on internal displacement and governance collapse as indicators of deep systemic instability.
In Nigeria, the recent reports of an alleged coup attempt and rising diplomatic tension with the United States mirror the Index’s assessment of lingering political fragility despite modest improvements in terrorism reduction and economic recovery.